How things can change! Only in 2007 our studies on retail reported that the GLA was forecasting a growth in retail spend and called for more development across the capital.

 

The report suggested that London’s retail market was on the eve of an extraordinary period of growth. This expected boom was highlighted in a report published by GLA Economics towards the end of 2006. Spending levels on comparison goods, said the GLA, were forecast to rise from £l9 bn in 2001 to nearly £39 bn by 2018. This equated to annual growth of 4.8 per cent. Existing retail space in the capital however, only had the capacity to cope with a 2.5 per cent growth in spending. So new space - and a lot of it - was going to be needed for London to cope with its consumer boom.

 

Across the city developments were already starting to come through, most notably White City (now Westfield London), Stratford City and One New Change. New retail formed part of the planned King's Cross area while there were expectations that the  Brent Cross town centre development would soon be under way.  The newly unveiled Wembley Stadium also offered extensive opportunities for the creation of retail space. To the south, Elephant & Castle, Lewisham and the long awaited re-development of Battersea Power Station were all earmarked for additional retail capacity. Further out Croydon and Kingston upon Thames were among the metropolitan centres anticipating an injection of significant new retail floorspace.

 

The GLA report stated these and other pipeline developments would deliver around 7.5m sq ft (700,000 sq m) by 2018. And it says this will go "some way to meeting London's retail requirements". But more space would still be needed in order to ensure London maintained

a healthy and competitive retail market. 

 

It didn’t quite work out like that. White City and Stratford were delivered as promised. Coal Drops Yard at Kings Cross opened at the end of 2018; but nothing much has happened at Elephant and Castle: the shopping centre was due to close for redevelopment in July this year, however this has been postponed because of COVID-19; Brent Cross received planning permission in 2010 but the £1.4 billion redevelopment has yet to get under way. The development of Wembley continues with retail including LondonDesigner Outlet with over 70 shops and restaurants, a nine screen cinema and over 7 million visitors a year. Battersea has a few local shops; the major retail development in the Power Station has yet to complete. In Croydon Unibail-Rodamco-Westfield have yet to progress their major redevelopment; in May this year they told Chief Executive Jo Negrini that they were still “committed to Croydon”.  British Land’s Eden Walk in Kingston is still in their medium term pipeline with development scheduled  for “2020 and beyond”.

 

It is very likely that all these major landlords will be reviewing their future plans in the light of COVID-19. It would be a brave commentator indeed who attempted to forecast which of the above named projects will progress over the coming years.

In NLA's most recent Retail report, published in July 2019, we looked at what lessons can be learned from  London’s new and established retail districts. The retail landscape is evolving fast to meet new demands. We ask, how can the built environment sector adapt to ensure a bright future for retail in London?