Miranda MacLaren and Freya Turtle, members of the NLA Expert Panel on Housing, share key insights from the NLA Housing Conference, highlighting the urgent need for all parts of the sector to unite behind a common goal to tackle London’s housing crisis - now more than at any point in the past decade. 

The NLA Housing Conference focused heavily on the structural reset required to address London’s deepening housing crisis. Against a backdrop of a decade-long decline in housing starts and severe financial pressure on boroughs, speakers discussed the need for stability, long-term policy certainty, institutional investment, ongoing progress from the Building Safety Regulator, and a "new era" of collaboration between the public and private sectors. 

The State of the Market & The Housing Crisis 

Housing starts have been in steady decline since late 2014, with current delivery figures lower than in 2009. There is a worrying lack of private starts, a forecasted drop-off in planning applications and most registered providers are still not growing their stock. This in turn is feeding reliance on temporary accommodation, estimated to be costing London over £5 million a day. 

Viability challenges stubbornly remain, with inflation, developer obligations / tax and high development costs presenting ongoing obstacles. Institutional investment is available, but construction risk is currently putting capital off, and this has translated in a drop in BTR investment and in overseas and off-plan buyers. In this market, ‘disrupters’ like co-living and student housing have experienced growth, BTR is present but not stepping up, and traditional private for sale development is declining. 

Although latest planning policy measures are welcomed and may help get more planning applications in the system or stalled sites moving, they cannot necessarily address the demand issues driven by the likes of affordability, tax and bad ‘PR’ for newbuild flats (e.g. service charge and overheating). It brings into question the potential need for tax reform (stamp duty and for landlords) and if what is being built is what people want. 

Policy, Planning & City Hall Strategy 

The ambitious London-wide target looms at 88,000 homes a year. Achieving this requires a structural reset of delivery mechanisms and new ways of thinking. Deputy Mayor for Housing, Tom Copley, set out where the GLA is making key moves, focusing on: 

·      Unlocking major sites and ‘new towns’ (e.g. Thamesmead and Enfield) 

·      Delivering strategic infrastructure projects such as the confirmed DLR Extension 

·      New initiatives such as the ‘City Hall Developer’ model and the London Housing Mission Board. 

·      Unlocking outer London and utilising ‘Grey Belt’ and Green Belt sites 

·      Delivering the new London Social and Affordable Homes programme (2026-2036) backed by £11.7bn of funding 

However, with a draft NPPF at consultation, draft London emergency CIL and housing measures on the table and a new draft London Plan due later this year, the cry from the sector is to reach a stable (but viable) policy environment as soon as possible. This is necessary to provide much needed certainty and allow for the long-term decision-making required for large sites. 

Building Safety Regulator (BSR) & Compliance 

This year shows ‘cautious optimism’ for the Gateway 2 process, with more dialogue now happening between the BSR and applicants and approval times starting to come down. 

A clear message to the industry is ‘design as you go’ is not an option and therefore more upfront cost is needed to design projects to full detail Stage 4 earlier. In acknowledgement that not all details will necessarily be available at Gateway 2, circa 75% of approvals are given with ‘requirements’ to be later addressed. 

There is, nonetheless, still room for improvement, with rejection rates remaining high at 30% for ‘Part A’ stage and delays yet to be addressed for refurbishment projects. 

The next challenge will begin when projects start to hit the Gateway 3 stage, which will test the strength of BSR resourcing and the success of the ‘Golden Thread’ approach to prevent delays in occupation. 

Local Authority Perspectives & Partnerships 

The Housing Conference showcased the challenges being faced by London boroughs and the individual strategies being adopted to unlock growth, delivery and capital. Boroughs utilising latest CPO powers and fully reviewing their assets, sometimes in partnership with other public sector bodies (e.g. the NHS and MoD), demonstrate authorities that want to do their bit in realising housing delivery. However, boroughs cannot do it alone – there is an ongoing need for: 

·      State-backed investment capital to unlock infrastructure; 

·      High quality Public Private Partnerships (PPPs) that unlock institutional investment and achieve true "custodians of place"; and 

·      Well-resourced and skilled council teams to manage complex partnerships. 

Will it be enough? 

In the last year, we have seen the continued decline in London’s housing market, but also significant planning and regulation reform at national and GLA levels. London boroughs continue to become bigger players in housing delivery and the importance of partnerships still reins true. However, this will not be enough to turn back the tide without a resurgence in market confidence, institutional investment and new-build demand – to achieve this, more stones need to be turned and levers pulled. Although the circumstances may seem bleak, one message was clearest of all at this year’s conference – all levels and players of the sector are collectively pulling together behind the common goal to address London’s housing crisis; more so than ever before in the last 10 years.