Written by Jess Beaumont of Hawkins\Brown Ltd, this article reflects on an NLA roundtable exploring how long-term asset holders can plan for uncertainty. It highlights foresight, stewardship, evolving user needs and evidence-based scenario planning as tools for creating resilient, adaptable places.


The future seems more unpredictable than ever. With pandemics, climate change, and political turmoil all influencing our cities faster than the real estate sector has responded so far, it is more important than ever to look beyond the next economic or electoral cycle to make resilient decisions. Two weeks ago, the NLA gathered long-term asset holders at the London Centre for a roundtable on foresight, in partnership with Hawkins\Brown. 

The group represented private developers, local authorities, housing associations, and university estates, with discussion ranging from ensuring the longevity and sustainability of enabling infrastructure to stimulating the ‘ground-floor economy’ as a key aspect of place-based regeneration. 

Uncertainty is structural, not episodic 

The roundtable opened with a shared understanding of our condition of permanent volatility, which draws into focus the longer timeframes of built environment projects. Long-term asset holders are making decisions today that will impact beyond multiple cycles of social change, regulatory change, funding turbulence, and demographic shifts. 

We’re also at the peak of urban living - in 1925, the world population was 2 billion. In 2025, more than double that number lived in cities. However, UN estimates suggest that by the 2080s, we’ll begin to see the population shrink, so our hundred-year-lifespan projects will need to be able to accommodate both growth and decline. 

Within this context, end-users’ demands for more flexibility, autonomy, and purpose seem to be driven by a deep underlying shift in the relationship between individuals and organisations. Whether it’s office workers prioritising dynamic workspaces, residents choosing amenity-rich build-to-rent homes, or students expecting individualised support, these trends demonstrate a new emphasis on individual agency. 

Value creation and innovation 

Understanding talent acquisition for future generations and value creation in changing markets were key themes. One participant described how their organisation was shifting its role from development to long-term stewardship, and the challenges in attracting high-value tenants who prefer a unique ground-floor offer to the more predictably performing high-street chains. Another discussed the importance of 24/7 activation to attract visitors outside of office hours, in turn increasing the area’s desirability as a place to work. Long-term management of estates was described as crucial to creating opportunity and enabling organisations, such as universities, to compete at the highest international level. 

There was general agreement that property agents don’t have the full complement of tools to structure future-thinking. In their reliance on ‘known presents’, they inevitably push a ‘copy-paste’ approach onto risk-averse clients. In the absence of any other data, flexibility can easily become the default setting, while local authority development management can be deeply conservative. In the face of a dire need to build more and better homes, while staying committed to environmental regeneration and climate change adaptation, as an industry, we lack tools to innovate both product and process. 

Evidence-based intelligent optimism 

We can’t predict the future, but we can make better decisions in the face of uncertainty. Scenarios based on organisation-specific considerations can be used to construct generalised pictures of the world. While we can’t change many of those macro- and societal externalities, analysing their probability allows organisations to stress-test their preparedness, whatever the eventuality. An evidence-based approach provides legitimacy and confidence – and a wide-angle approach, such as Hawkins\Brown’s, incorporating interdisciplinary cross-sector intelligence alongside design thinking, provides asset-holders to face the future, write strategy, and brief their design teams with confidence.