Our modelling combined datasets describing global trading relationships and direct GHG emission inventories. Taken together, they give a full breakdown of supply-chain emissions for national health sectors and the global health system. Growth rate forecasts in healthcare demand at a national and global level were used, in combination with in-house industry decarbonisation forecasts, to predict future emissions trends. We engaged experts in health policy to design emissions mitigation measures and test their level of impact. Finally, we recommended actions organised in terms of the decarbonisation pathways and action areas.
Healthcare accounts for 4.4% of global GHG emissions. The study found that without decarbonisation action, increased demand for health services will triple annual emissions by 2050. Even if countries are successful in meeting their current Nationally Determined Contributions, emissions will still increase by 60%. This highlights the need for radical, structural, reform of health care delivery, as recommended in our report.
We are continuing our partnership with HCWH, working together to drive our shared vision of a climate-smart health system. This includes supporting national health systems as they develop their own decarbonisation road maps. We are excited to continue to use our understanding of emissions modelling and decarbonisation strategies to help organisations, sectors, cities and regions to reduce their environmental impact, and develop in line with the UN’s Sustainable Development Goals.