Regardless of the perspective – politician, RP, agent or developer – the ‘perfect storm’ of market conditions is holding back the delivery of affordable homes. It is difficult for the public sector to deliver homes, and the private sector has slowed, further impacting new homes. Unfortunately, this will continue with negative growth in 2024, and London underperforming relative to the rest of the country until 2028, according to Savills.

 

There is consensus on the characteristics of this storm:

 

While there is cause for some optimism, in the form of significant GLA-funded home starts and innovation in Newham with its wholly owned RP, Populo, the challenges are significant, and only set to worsen.

 

 

We are on track for 25,658 GLA-funded home starts, the highest since records began in 2012 and exceeding the 20,000 target for new council homes and homes are increasingly at Social Rent and London Affordable Rent (LAR).

 

But wider housing supply only peaked at 46,000 homes in FY2020 and has fallen to 37,000 in FY2022, well below the London Plan indicative 66,000 target (of which 50 per cent should be deliverable).

 

Lack of current supply is a concern, but Emily explained how reduced starts is made worse by doubly slow supply. Current new-home starts are down 60 per cent vs 2014/15 peak (when we were still not meeting the target), but today, permissions also 60 per cent down, and applications down 70 per cent. So where is the supply?

 

Both Michael Gozo at GLA and Mayor Rokhsana Fiaz spotlighted the acute challenge in the temporary housing sector. The acute need for people living in temporary accommodation makes this critical, but is compounded by the knock on impact it has on the private rented sector. 

 

Newham has 37,000 people on its waiting list – a 30 year, generational backlog, driven by lack of intelligent, lateral, strategic thinking at national level, right to buy policies and growing pressures on LA’s as more people are unable to pay their rents.

 

The temporary accommodation ‘catastrophe’ is driving a £7.2m budget pressure driven from this, which rose to £14.3m in-year, demanding further cuts to resident support. 

 

Populo CEO, Deborah Heenan’s surprised us by declaring that LLDC was the solution. She quickly clarified that this was not the development corp., but L-L-D-C: Land Banking – making use of the largest landbank, the public sector (e.g. Carpenters estate); Leadership (Political – to drive through a new venture, Executive ­– right skills in right place, Non executive – skills and experience); Development Management, the conductor of the orchestra and the most difficult to find; and lastly Corporate behaviour – innovation across the council, such as new later living accommodation to unlock underoccupied family homes.

 

The solution offering a round of applause to close off the panel was Emily’s suggestion that Government sees affordable housing as an investment, that pays for itself, rather than a cost.